Affirm
A lender that runs like a tech company. Bigger by a third every year, profitable for the first time, and betting its future on AI that decides who gets credit.
10-K FY2026- Revenue
- $4.26B in the year to June 2026, up 32%.
- Profit
- +$417M first full year of operating profit.
- Debt
- $9.85B 88% backed by the loans it makes.
- Watch
- 22% of all volume comes from Amazon.
- AI
- In the core a transformer model makes its credit calls.
- Hiring
- 197 → 237 remote listings since Oct 10.
Half its money is interest.
Affirm is known for the button at checkout, but merchant fees are only a third of its revenue. The biggest slice is interest on the loans it keeps, and another is selling loans to investors.
- 1Years of repayment data, now read by a transformer modelIts new underwriting model learns from the order and timing of events in a credit history.Affirm, Sep 17, 2026
- 2A place at the biggest checkoutsAmazon is 22% of volume and the top five partners 44%. Also in Apple Pay, Shopify and Costco.10-K FY2026
- 3Deep, cheap funding$14.7B of funding capacity, plus $10.0B of its loans held by outside investors.10-K FY2026, debt note
| Company | Worth | Revenue | Growth | Per employee | Paid per $1 | Stock, 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Affirm | $24.9B | $3.95B | +32% | $1.67M | $6.51 | +2% |
| PayPal | $47.4B | $34.4B | +5% | $1.45M | $1.42 | −18% |
| Block | $45.8B | $25.0B | +5% | $2.45M | $1.85 | 0% |
| Klarna | $5.02B | $4.04B | +34% | $1.43M | $1.25 | −64% |
| Sezzle | $4.56B | $532M | +43% | $2.65M | $8.80 | +96% |
- Affirm
- Worth
- $24.9B
- Revenue
- $3.95B
- Growth
- +32%
- Per employee
- $1.67M
- Paid per $1
- $6.51
- Stock, 1 yr
- +2%
- PayPal
- Worth
- $47.4B
- Revenue
- $34.4B
- Growth
- +5%
- Per employee
- $1.45M
- Paid per $1
- $1.42
- Stock, 1 yr
- −18%
- Block
- Worth
- $45.8B
- Revenue
- $25.0B
- Growth
- +5%
- Per employee
- $2.45M
- Paid per $1
- $1.85
- Stock, 1 yr
- 0%
- Klarna
- Worth
- $5.02B
- Revenue
- $4.04B
- Growth
- +34%
- Per employee
- $1.43M
- Paid per $1
- $1.25
- Stock, 1 yr
- −64%
- Sezzle
- Worth
- $4.56B
- Revenue
- $532M
- Growth
- +43%
- Per employee
- $2.65M
- Paid per $1
- $8.80
- Stock, 1 yr
- +96%
Investors pay $6.51 for every dollar Affirm brings in. Its peers here range from $1.25 to $8.80, about 4 times their median of $1.64.
Affirm brought in $1.2 billion in 91 days.
That is about $289 million more than the same three months a year earlier. Each of its 2,358 employees brought in about $1.81 million over the year, about $4,950 a day.
Revenue is not profit. It is the money that came in before Affirm pays any of its costs.
10-K FY2026; quarter = full year minus first nine monthsFrom losing $87 million to making $417 million.
Revenue grew 83% in two years. In FY2026 it kept 10 cents of every revenue dollar as operating profit.
- FY2024: lost 27¢ of every $1
- FY2025: lost 3¢ of every $1
- FY2026: kept 10¢ of every $1
Block and Sezzle bring in more per person than Affirm; PayPal and Klarna less.
- Sezzle$2.65M
- Block$2.45M
- Affirm$1.67M
- PayPal$1.45M
- Klarna$1.43M
Affirm lends the money it earns on. If bond buyers stop buying, growth and margin fall together. That is the bear case.
What the filings say, and what we think it means.
The fact is the filing's. The read, in italics, is ours.
- 01Good
The $1.6 billion quarter is mostly a tax entry, not cash.
10-K FY2026, income taxes noteQ4 net income was $1.62B on about $169M of pretax profit. Affirm released $1.5B of a tax valuation allowance, citing three years of US profits. Cash taxes paid all year: $6.6M.
The real quarter made about $169M before tax. The release says management now expects to use $3.2B of old tax losses: confidence, not cash. Any P/E built on it misleads.
- 02Good
First full year of operating profit.
10-K FY2026, statement of operationsOperating income $417M in FY2026, after losses of $87M and $616M the two years before. Q4 operating margin about 12.6%.
The cleaner turnaround number, because it leaves the tax entry out. Companies that move from burning cash to earning it tend to make fewer surprise cuts.
- 03Watch
Amazon is 22% of volume, and Affirm paid to keep it.
10-K FY2026, stockholders' equity noteAmazon drove 22% of purchase volume; the top five partners 44%. In Nov 2025 Affirm cut the price on Amazon's warrants from $100.00 to $63.06, costing $37.7M, with $429M of warrant cost still to come.
One partner is over a fifth of the business, and the repricing looks like the price of keeping it. If Amazon left, growth would take a hit overnight.
- 04Watch
Stock pay is $485M a year, and over a third never hits the expense line.
10-K FY2026, equity incentive plans noteTotal stock-based pay $484.5M in FY2026, of which $179.8M was capitalized into software instead of expensed. Shares outstanding rose 3.7%.
Equity is a big part of pay here, about 11% of revenue. Good for employees' grants, a steady trickle of dilution for shareholders, and costs look smaller than they are.
- 05Watch
A $920 million note turns into stock above $101.
10-K FY2026, debt note0.75% convertible notes due 2029 convert at about $101.02 a share. Separately, $221M of 0% notes are due Nov 15, 2026, against $1.63B of cash.
November is easily covered. The 2029 notes matter if the stock climbs: above $101, holders can take shares, diluting everyone else.
- 06Neutral
No buyback program.
8-K, Dec 20, 2024The only repurchase was $250M (3.5M shares at $70.89) in Dec 2024, bought from investors in its 2029 notes. Nothing in FY2024 or FY2026.
Affirm does not return cash to shareholders. What equity is worth here depends on growth, not on a shrinking share count.
- 07Neutral
Bad loans are steady, and the cushion grew.
10-K FY2026, loans and allowance noteLoss reserve 5.89% of loans, up from 5.65%. Payments 30+ days late 2.51%, from 2.46%. Hardship modifications 0.25% of loans, from 0.17%.
No crack in consumer credit yet, and reserves are growing a bit faster than loans. The hardship number is the one to watch if the economy softens.
- 08Neutral
Applying to become a bank.
10-K FY2026, risk factorsIn Jan 2026 Affirm applied to charter Affirm Bank, a Nevada industrial loan company. Two partner banks originate most of its loans today.
A charter would cut reliance on partner banks and could lower funding costs, at the price of bank-style rules. Expect compliance and risk hiring if approved.
- 09Good
No live regulator fight, and no restructuring.
10-K FY2026, commitments and contingenciesThe securities class action was dismissed in Sept 2025 (on appeal). No CFPB or state enforcement named. Restructuring cost: $0.
The pressure has moved from Washington to state and UK rules. No restructuring charge suggests no recent layoffs.
- 10Neutral
Two presidents now report to the founder.
8-K, Aug 25, 2026On Aug 25, 2026 COO Michael Linford was named President alongside Libor Michalek. A former Capital One card president joined the board in July.
Possibly groundwork for succession, or for a bank-like future. Speculation, but worth knowing who may run things in three years.
Finance is paid 39% over market. Data, 10% under.
We save every company's roles, pay by team and level, AI share and churn every day, so each month this page can say more. Sparklines use their own scale.
Can AI agents do business with Affirm?
We checked the agent payment programs, developer docs and site rules an AI assistant would meet.
On the rails early. No tools of its own yet.
Still Remote read- YesGoogle's Agent Payments ProtocolSigned on as a supporter three weeks after Google launched it.Business Wire, Oct 9, 2025
- AnnouncedPay later inside Google AI Mode and GeminiNamed alongside Klarna, on Google's Universal Commerce Protocol. Rollout said to be weeks away in May; not confirmed live.Digital Commerce 360, May 13, 2026
- AnnouncedStripe's agent payment tokensWill "soon" let AI platforms offer Affirm and finish the purchase inside the assistant. Stripe co-built OpenAI's checkout standard, so this is the likely road into ChatGPT.Affirm, Mar 3, 2026
- Not foundOpenAI Instant Checkout, Visa and Mastercard agent programsNo announcement found tying Affirm to any of them.Searched Oct 31, 2026
- YesDeveloper docs that AI tools can readdocs.affirm.com publishes an llms.txt index of its APIs. The main site has none.checked Oct 31, 2026
- Not foundAn MCP server or agent toolkitPlain APIs and SDKs only. Nothing built for agents to call directly.checked Oct 31, 2026
- MixedLets AI crawlers read its siteNo AI bots blocked by name, but /jobs/ is closed to every bot, so assistants cannot read its openings.checked Oct 31, 2026
Where Affirm puts AI to work.
- 1A transformer model now makes credit decisionsLive at US checkout since Sept 2026. It reads the order and timing of events in a credit history and approves more people at similar risk.Affirm, Sep 17, 2026
- 2Most new code is written by agentsThe May 2026 shareholder letter says engineering was rebuilt to be AI-first, with agent-written code now outweighing the rest.Shareholder letter, FQ3 FY2026
- 3No AI layoffs planned, per the CEOMax Levchin said in May 2026 that Affirm is not planning AI-related layoffs.FQ3 FY2026 earnings call, as reported
More listings than on Sep 7, most of them in engineering.
What Affirm puts on its own channel.
Short videos from Affirm's official YouTube channel, played here. We only use a channel that links affirm.com and carries the company's name.
- When the back-to-school fits… fit into your plan with Affirm. 💅 #shorts #college #fashion172 views
- You pick your major, Affirm will help with the plan. 🫡 #shorts #college #wellness186 views
- New semester, new passion project. Brought to you by Affirm. 🎙️ #shorts #college #podcasting157 views
- Back-to-school means moms do SO MUCH. Affirm is cheering you on. 📣 #shorts #parenting #travel463 views
- Move-in day made easier with Affirm. 📦 #shorts #college #homedecor268 views
- Back-to-school surprises happen, but Affirm’s got you covered. ✅ #shorts #college #planning207 views
- Unfurnished Business | Episode 61.6 thousand views
- Unfurnished Business | Episode 5234 views
Your view of the next year, in a share price.
A way to think, not a forecast, and not investment advice.
- Growth
- How much bigger revenue gets in a year. More revenue to multiply.
- Paid per $1 of revenue
- The mood dial. High when investors expect fast growth and future profit, low when they doubt it. Affirm sits at $5.85; the peers' median is $1.64.
- Share count
- Stock pay and converting notes add shares, so each is a smaller slice. Buybacks do the opposite. Last year Affirm's share count changed +3.7%.
- The analyst range
- 39 analysts publish a 12-month target, from $79 to $115. It is where Wall Street sits, not where the stock must go.
Growth and valuation hold, and the share count keeps rising at last year's rate. This lands near the analysts' average of $99.
Your $100,000 grant today would be worth $127,584 in 12 months in this world, before taxes and vesting.
A way to think, not a forecast, and not investment advice.
10-K FY2026The signals, and which way they push.
- TailwindBuilding the credit engine, not buying growth.
86 of 151 open roles are engineering, ML roles cluster in underwriting and fraud, and a transformer model now runs US credit decisions. Only 9 roles are sales or marketing.
- TailwindPushing hard outside the US.
57 listings name Canada, the UK, Spain or Poland. Amazon.co.uk and Costco UK went live in Sept 2026; Shopify installments reached the UK in Dec 2025.
- HeadwindGrowth runs on borrowed money.
Debt rose 28.5% in a year to $9.85B, mostly loans sold as bonds. A credit squeeze would slow lending before anything else.
- HeadwindToo much rides on Amazon.
Amazon is 22% of volume, and Affirm repriced Amazon's warrants to keep the deal. Walmart already left for Klarna in 2025.
- TailwindBecoming a bank would lower its costs.
A charter application went in Jan 2026, two presidents were named in Aug, and a former Capital One card president joined the board.
Where Affirm ends up, if we had to bet.
Our calls, not facts. Each one is tied to something that already happened, so you can judge the reasoning.
- 1
The Affirm Card carries more than half of everything Affirm finances.
Likely 72%ProductsCard volume grew 124% to $2.8B in one quarter, and it works anywhere Visa does. Losing Walmart, and merchants moving pay-later into their own wallets, push Affirm toward a product it controls.
Affirm FQ4 FY2026 results - 2
More Affirm loans start inside an AI assistant than on a checkout page.
Coin flip 50%AIIt joined the agent payment rails early: Google AP2, Gemini, Stripe tokens. But its own CEO calls agent shopping very early, and no agent volume has been disclosed.
Affirm and Google announcements, 2025 to 2026 - 3
Affirm is a bank, and pay-later is regulated like credit cards, state by state.
Likely 72%RegulationThe federal BNPL rule was withdrawn in 2025, so New York and others are writing their own. FICO now scores BNPL, and Affirm has applied for a charter.
CFPB; NY DFS proposed rule, Jul 2026 - 4
The UK and Europe bring in a fifth of Affirm's volume.
Coin flip 50%ExpansionAmazon.co.uk, Costco UK and Shopify UK give it real reach, with France, Germany and the Netherlands planned. The UK's BNPL rules from July 2026 add cost.
Affirm releases; FCA PS26/1 - 5
A big bank or card network buys Affirm.
Long shot 16%M&ANo credible bid has ever been reported, and Affirm is the buyer in its own deals. Klarna at a third of its IPO price makes the sector cheap, not Affirm a willing seller.
Klarna coverage, Oct 2026
Read by the Still Remote research agent on November 1, 2026 from the sources linked on this page. Facts and scenarios only, not investment advice.