Upstart
An AI loan marketplace that matches borrowers with banks and funds. Back to a profit, growing fast, and now building its own bank, while one partner brings in over a third of revenue.
10-Q Q2 2026- Revenue
- $1.04B in 2025, up 64%. About $1.4B expected for 2026.
- Profit
- +$43M operating profit in 2025, after two years of losses.
- Debt
- $2.03B 83% of it convertible notes owed by the company.
- Watch
- 36% of Q2 revenue came from one customer.
- AI
- 91% automated of loans close with no human at Upstart involved.
- Remote
- Since 2020 most roles can work anywhere in the US and Canada.
- Hiring
- 80 → 80 remote listings since Oct 10.
Three quarters of its money is fees for finding borrowers.
Upstart mostly does not lend its own money. Banks, credit unions and funds pay it to find and approve borrowers, then pay again to service the loans. A small slice comes from interest on loans it holds, after losses in their value.
- 1A credit model trained on 104 million repayment eventsThe personal loan model grew from 23 variables in 2014 to over 2,500 in 2025, one of about 30 in-house machine learning models.10-K FY2025, business
- 2Loans that close without a person91% of loans were fully automated in 2025, up from about 70% at the December 2020 IPO.10-K FY2025, business
- 3Big funds sign up years aheadOver half of loan funding is committed capital. Castlelake funds can buy up to $4B of loans over 24 months, signed July 2026.10-K FY2025; Alternative Credit Investor, Jul 29, 2026
| Company | Worth | Revenue | Growth | Per employee | Paid per $1 | Stock, 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstart | $2.24B | $1.25B | +46% | $0.89M | $2.03 | −52% |
| SoFi | $21.6B | $6.11B | +38% | $1.00M | $3.72 | −45% |
| Pagaya | $1.60B | $1.35B | +11% | $2.60M | $1.40 | −30% |
| Enova | $4.26B | $3.65B | +20% | $1.99M | $1.26 | +44% |
- Upstart
- Worth
- $2.24B
- Revenue
- $1.25B
- Growth
- +46%
- Per employee
- $0.89M
- Paid per $1
- $2.03
- Stock, 1 yr
- −52%
- SoFi
- Worth
- $21.6B
- Revenue
- $6.11B
- Growth
- +38%
- Per employee
- $1.00M
- Paid per $1
- $3.72
- Stock, 1 yr
- −45%
- Pagaya
- Worth
- $1.60B
- Revenue
- $1.35B
- Growth
- +11%
- Per employee
- $2.60M
- Paid per $1
- $1.40
- Stock, 1 yr
- −30%
- Enova
- Worth
- $4.26B
- Revenue
- $3.65B
- Growth
- +20%
- Per employee
- $1.99M
- Paid per $1
- $1.26
- Stock, 1 yr
- +44%
Investors pay $2.03 for every dollar Upstart brings in. Its peers here range from $1.26 to $3.72, close to their median of $1.40.
Upstart brought in $365 million in 91 days.
That is about $107 million more than the same three months a year earlier. Each of its 1,405 employees brought in about $0.74 million over the year, about $2,040 a day.
Revenue is not profit. It is the money that came in before Upstart pays any of its costs.
10-Q Q2 2026; employees from 10-K at Dec 31, 2025From losing $173 million to making $43 million.
Revenue more than doubled in two years. In FY2025 it kept 4 cents of every revenue dollar as operating profit.
- FY2023: lost 50¢ of every $1
- FY2024: lost 27¢ of every $1
- FY2025: kept 4¢ of every $1
Every peer here brings in more per person than Upstart.
- Pagaya$2.60M
- Enova$1.99M
- SoFi$1.00M
- Upstart$0.89M
Unlike most lenders, Upstart's debt is mainly its own long-dated notes, not loans financed with loans. The first big one is due in 2029. Cash of $456M plus $526M restricted sits against it.
What the filings say, and what we think it means.
The fact is the filing's. The read, in italics, is ours.
- 01Watch
One customer is 36% of revenue, up from 10% two years ago.
10-Q Q2 2026; 10-K FY2025Customer A was 36% of Q2 2026 revenue and 33% of 2025 revenue, versus 10% in 2024. In 2025 the top three lending partners originated 83% of loans and paid 61% of revenue.
The filings do not name the customer. Whoever it is, losing them would hit revenue fast. The bank charter looks partly like a way to need these partners less.
- 02Good
Back to an operating profit.
10-K FY2025; 10-Q Q2 2026Operating income $42.6M in 2025 after losses of $172.9M and $256.5M. Q2 2026 operating income $14.6M, net income $16.5M.
Thin margins, but the direction is clear. A profitable Upstart is less likely to repeat the deep cuts of 2023.
- 03Watch
$1.69 billion of convertible notes, at four different prices.
10-K FY2025, borrowings note2029 notes ($431M, 2%) convert at $45.66; 2030 notes ($500M, 1%) at $91.99; 2032 notes ($690M, 0%) at $82.50. $66.5M of 2026 notes were due Aug 15, 2026.
If the stock stays well below these prices, the notes must be repaid or refinanced in cash. If it climbs past them, holders take shares and everyone else is diluted.
- 04Watch
It is buying back more loans from investors.
10-Q Q2 2026, commitments and contingenciesUpstart paid $35.6M in the first half of 2026 to repurchase or make good on loans it sold, versus an immaterial amount in 2025. The maximum exposure is $17.0B of loans held by others.
Such payments typically follow loans that broke a promise made at sale, like fraud or bad data. Small next to revenue, but new, and worth watching each quarter.
- 05Watch
More loan risk sits on its own books.
10-Q Q2 2026, balance sheetLoans held rose to $1.06B and beneficial interests (slices of loan pools it kept) to $546M at June 30, 2026, from $985M and $396M six months earlier. Fair value losses were $42.4M in the half.
A marketplace is meant to pass risk to investors. Holding more means a credit downturn hits Upstart directly: fair value losses were $181M in 2023.
- 06Neutral
$100 million of stock bought in four days.
Upstart release, Feb 19, 2026Feb 12 to 18, 2026, Upstart bought 3.19M shares at an average $31.31 under a $400M program from 2022. $122M of the program is left. Nothing bought in Q2.
Shares outstanding fell from 98.0M to 97.3M in the half. A one-off burst, not a steady habit.
- 07Watch
Stock pay is about 13% of revenue.
10-K FY2025; 10-Q Q2 2026, equity noteStock-based pay $132.0M in 2025. $79.3M in the first half of 2026, up 21% on a year earlier. Shares outstanding rose 4.9% in 2025.
Equity is a real part of pay here. The 2026 buyback offset some of the dilution, not all of it.
- 08Neutral
A co-founder took over as CEO in May.
8-K, Feb 10, 2026CTO Paul Gu became CEO on May 1, 2026, with a $37M stock award tied to four-year relative returns. Dave Girouard moved to executive chairman. A new CFO, Andrea Blankmeyer, started in March.
Continuity more than change: the new CEO built the models. Expect the AI story to get louder, and pay tied to share price targets.
- 09Neutral
A bank charter, half approved, and a loan to pay for it.
8-K, Oct 20, 2026; Finovate, Jul 24, 2026The OCC conditionally approved Upstart Bank, N.A. in July 2026; FDIC and Federal Reserve approvals were still pending. In Oct 2026 Upstart took a $200M MUFG revolver to fund the bank's initial capital.
Bank status would cut licensing cost and lending gaps by state. It also brings bank rules, capital demands and new risk and compliance teams.
- 10Watch
A 2022 securities lawsuit is still alive.
10-Q Q2 2026, commitments and contingenciesIn re Upstart Holdings Securities Litigation (S.D. Ohio, filed July 2022) won class certification in March 2025. Several shareholder derivative suits are stayed behind it. Upstart says it cannot estimate the loss.
Four years old and unresolved. A settlement would be a cost, not a threat to the company.
Legal is paid 23% over market. Operations, 23% under.
We save every company's roles, pay by team and level, AI share and churn every day, so each month this page can say more. Sparklines use their own scale.
Can AI agents do business with Upstart?
We checked the agent payment programs, developer docs and site rules an AI assistant would meet.
Agents inside, not outside. No door for outside AI agents yet.
Still Remote read- Not foundAgent payment or commerce protocols (Google AP2, OpenAI and Stripe ACP, Visa or Mastercard agent programs)No announcement found tying Upstart to any of them.Searched Oct 31, 2026
- Not foundLoan offers inside ChatGPT or another AI assistantNo Upstart app or listing in an AI assistant found.Searched Oct 31, 2026
- Not foundA public API or MCP server agents could callapi.upstart.com answers 404 at its root. No public developer docs found; partner tools are private.checked Oct 31, 2026
- MixedAn llms.txt guide for AI toolsupstart.com/llms.txt exists, but it holds robots-style crawler rules (GPTBot, PerplexityBot, ClaudeBot kept out of login and account pages), not a guide to its content.checked Oct 31, 2026
- YesLets AI crawlers read its main siterobots.txt names no AI bots. It closes only account, offer and form pages to every bot.checked Oct 31, 2026
- MixedLets AI crawlers read its job listingscareers.upstart.com blocks bedrockbot (Amazon's AI crawler) from everything. Other bots may read job pages, with a 5 second crawl delay.checked Oct 31, 2026
Where Upstart puts AI to work.
- 1AI is the product, not a side projectAbout 30 in-house machine learning models price and approve loans. The main one reads over 2,500 variables, and 91% of loans close with no person at Upstart involved.10-K FY2025, business
- 2Agentic AI in collections and servicingThe 10-K says Upstart uses AI, including agentic AI, for customized servicing interventions. Customer support is still a mix of in-house and outsourced staff.10-K FY2025, business
- 3No layoff charges in 2025Severance cost was $0 in 2025, after $4.4M in 2024 and a 20% cut of 365 people in January 2023. The company says it may reduce its workforce again.10-K FY2025, reorganization note
Fewer listings than on Sep 7, led by engineering.
Your view of the next year, in a share price.
A way to think, not a forecast, and not investment advice.
- Growth
- How much bigger revenue gets in a year. More revenue to multiply.
- Paid per $1 of revenue
- The mood dial. High when investors expect fast growth and future profit, low when they doubt it. Upstart sits at $2.15; the peers' median is $1.40.
- Share count
- Stock pay and converting notes add shares, so each is a smaller slice. Buybacks do the opposite. Last year Upstart's share count changed +4.9%.
- The analyst range
- 18 analysts publish a 12-month target, from $18 to $61. It is where Wall Street sits, not where the stock must go.
Growth and valuation hold, and the share count keeps rising at last year's rate. This lands near the analysts' average of $37.
Your $100,000 grant today would be worth $156,635 in 12 months in this world, before taxes and vesting.
A way to think, not a forecast, and not investment advice.
Q2 2026 release; 10-K FY2025The signals, and which way they push.
- TailwindLoan volume is growing fast again.
Q2 2026 originations $4.2B, up 50%. September 2026 originations $1.38B, up 44%, from the monthly figures Upstart now posts publicly.
- TailwindFunds are lining up to buy its loans.
Castlelake can buy up to $4B over 24 months (July 2026) and Fortress $1.25B (April 2026). Over half of funding is now committed capital.
- TailwindA bank of its own is getting closer.
OCC conditional approval in July 2026, a $200M revolver for the bank's capital in October, and a former Santander US CEO on the board since May. Target opening was early 2027.
- HeadwindToo much rides on one partner.
Customer A grew from 10% of revenue in 2024 to 36% in Q2 2026. The top three partners originated 83% of 2025 loans.
- HeadwindGrowth is costing more per loan.
Contribution margin slipped to 55% from 58%, conversion fell to 19.7% from 21.0%, and sales and marketing rose 57% in Q2 2026.
Where Upstart ends up, if we had to bet.
Our calls, not facts. Each one is tied to something that already happened, so you can judge the reasoning.
- 1
Upstart Bank is open and lending in all 50 states.
Likely 72%RegulationThe OCC gave conditional approval in July 2026 and Upstart has borrowed to capitalize the bank. FDIC and Federal Reserve approvals were still pending, and OCC approvals are not automatic.
Finovate, Jul 24, 2026; 8-K, Oct 20, 2026 - 2
Auto loans, home equity lines and Cash Line make up a third of what Upstart originates.
Coin flip 50%ProductsAuto and other originations tripled to $589M in Q2 2026, about 14% of the $4.2B total. Cash Line, a revolving credit line, is new, and the bank would let all products reach every state.
Q2 2026 results release - 3
AI agents handle most borrower servicing and collections at Upstart.
Coin flip 50%AIIt already uses agentic AI for servicing interventions and automates 91% of approvals. But automation has sat at 91% to 92% for two years, and support still leans on outsourced staff.
10-K FY2025; Q2 2026 release - 4
One partner still brings in over a quarter of Upstart's revenue.
Coin flip 50%CompetitionCustomer A went from 10% to 36% of revenue in two years. A bank of its own and new fund deals could spread that out, if partners keep buying.
10-Q Q2 2026 - 5
A big bank buys Upstart.
Long shot 16%M&AUpstart chose to build its own bank rather than partner deeper, and a co-founder now runs it. $1.69B of convertible notes and pending charter approvals would also complicate any deal.
Upstart release, Mar 10, 2026; 10-K FY2025
Read by the Still Remote research agent on November 1, 2026 from the sources linked on this page. Facts and scenarios only, not investment advice.